The world of humanoid robotics is heating up, with two major players – Boston Dynamics' Atlas and Tesla's Optimus – vying for the spotlight. While both aim to revolutionize how robots interact with the world, their approaches and current capabilities differ significantly. In fact, I project the number of robots in use to reach at least 5 million in 2025 worldwide. Extrapolating this trend, it's reasonable to expect a significant increase potentially exceeding 71 million robots in 2033.
How big is the market for robots worldwide?
I estimate $500 billion revenue in 2033 divided by average $7,000 the cost per unit is approximately 71 million robots sold, a potential 41% annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next 8 years. Today, it can be compared to the global market for cars around 82 million units per year. The estimated average cost for a car in 2033 is $25,000. So, the calculations are similar here.
Watch Video Atlas Robot by Boston Dynamics ...
Atlas, developed by the Google X spin-off, is the veteran athlete in this arena. Known for its incredible agility and dynamic movement, Atlas can perform impressive parkour routines, backflips, and even dance moves. This is achieved through advanced hydraulic and new electronic model actuators, Boston Dynamics offers sophisticated robotic control systems, and years of research and development. Atlas excels in unstructured environments, showcasing potential for disaster relief, search and rescue, and industrial applications in challenging settings.
Optimus, Tesla's newcomer, takes a more pragmatic approach. Elon Musk envisions Optimus as a general-purpose robot for everyday tasks, eventually assisting with household chores, manufacturing, and even elderly care. While still in its early stages, Optimus focuses on affordability and mass production, leveraging Tesla's expertise in electric vehicle technology and AI. Its design emphasizes simplicity and efficiency, utilizing electric actuators and drawing inspiration from human biomechanics.
Here's a table summarizing their key differences:
While Atlas currently boasts superior physical capabilities, Optimus' potential lies in its scalability and affordability when it comes to manufacturing mass volume of units. It's too early to declare a definitive winner, as both robots are continuously evolving. Atlas continues to push the boundaries of athleticism and dexterity, while Optimus is rapidly progressing towards its goal of widespread utility. Ultimately, both robots represent significant advancements in humanoid robotics, each with the potential to reshape our world in unique ways. It's important to note that this is a rapidly evolving field, and new information is constantly emerging.
Watch Video Optimus Robot by Tesla ...
One issue of concern involves the need for rare Earth metals often used in robots. Rare Earth metals currently 70% are produced by China making it a geopolitical challenge. Note details below:
High-performance magnets:  Rare earth elements like neodymium and dysprosium are crucial for creating powerful, lightweight magnets. These are used in many robots for motors, actuators, and sensors. This is especially true for robots like Atlas that require strong, precise movements.  Â
Batteries:Â Some batteries, particularly those used in electric vehicles and potentially in robots like Optimus, may contain rare earth elements.
Electronics:Â Â Rare earth metals can be found in small amounts within the circuitry and components of robots.
Where robots may not need rare earth metals:
Certain types of actuators:Â Â Not all robots rely on rare earth magnets for movement. Some may use alternative technologies like pneumatic or hydraulic actuators.
Structural components:Â The main body and frame of a robot are typically made from more common metals like steel, aluminum, or titanium.
Simpler robots:Â Robots designed for basic tasks with less demanding movement requirements may not need rare earth magnets at all.
The future of rare earth metals in robotics:
Demand is likely to increase:Â As robots become more complex and prevalent, the demand for rare earth magnets is expected to rise. Further, I project revenue from robot sales to reach $500 billion in 2033. Â Â Â
Research into alternatives:Â Â Scientists are actively exploring alternative materials and technologies to reduce reliance on rare earth metals due to concerns about supply chain vulnerabilities and environmental impact.
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Conclusion
While widespread integration of robots like Optimus and Atlas into our daily lives by 2033 remains ambitious, the possibility is becoming increasingly plausible. Advancements in AI, battery technology, and actuator design are rapidly bridging the gap between impressive prototypes for manufacturing and industrial job tasks and practical consumer cobot products. We might see specialized versions of these robots assisting in healthcare settings, performing dangerous tasks like bomb disposal, routine tasks or even acting as companions for the senior citizens. However, challenges like mass production cost, safety regulations, and public perception will need to be addressed before they become as commonplace as smartphones. By 2033, we'll likely witness a more pronounced presence of these robots in specific sectors, laying the groundwork for a future where human robot collaboration is the norm and the long-term market outlook is very promising.
About Author
J Dean - Director, ABV ... J Dean delivers over 40 years of experience across a wide range of industries worldwide. He is considered by many to be a leading research expert in the energy industry, healthcare, sports, environmental studies, business market analysis, eCommerce and AI technology solutions. Mr. Dean has been a frequent Evangelist at conferences worldwide. Currently, among the many projects, J Dean is focused on enhancing Digital Content Networks and Tokenized Asset eCommerce Programming Solutions. He is a graduate of Boston University. J Dean enjoys collecting antiques, historical vintage items, travel and sports fitness. Email Us​
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